TOURIST AND RECREATIONAL COMPLEX OF THE PENZA REGION: MAIN FACTORS
AND FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT 

Yurin Andrey Vladimirovich, postgraduate student, Penza State University, E-mail: pnzturizm@gmail.ru
Utkina Natalia Vladimirovna, candidate of economic sciences, associate professor, sub-department of marketing, commerce and service industry, Penza State University, E-mail: penzamarketing@mail.ru 

338.48 

Background. Nowadays in Russia the government and expert community show their interest in development of regional tourist and recreational complexes (TRC), the essential part of their functioning is tourist reception and rest organization activity in their temporary residence. And besides, we focus not only on subjects of the Russian Federation with long-established mass tourist flows, but also on regions where tourism is a relatively young reality. The Penza Region is remarkable in this respect, because all the constituent
components of TRC are represented here, hence there is significant potential regional tourism development in the region. The objectives of the study are to assess the main indicators of the current state of the tourist and recreational complex of the Penza region and to make a short-term forecast of its development that will improve the management of TRC of the region and adjust the plan for implementing the regional tourism development strategy.
Materials and methods. In carrying out the research, materials from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Penza region, the territorial agency of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Penza region, and the results of the authors' own research were used.
To implement a comprehensive scientific search to achieve the goals set, methods of system analysis, forecasting methods based on time series analysis, methods of economic analysis were applied.
Results. This work presents the results of an assessment of the dynamics of the main indicators of the development of the tourist and recreational complex in the Penza region for the period from 2008 to 2016, on the basis of which a forecast is made up to 2020.
Conclusions. Forecasting and analysis of the main indicators of TRC in the Penza Region allowed us to identify a number of positive and negative factors that affect the state of the region's TRC. This study led to the conclusion that the TRC of the Penza region
will develop further in the absence of global and national socio-economic shocks. 

tourism, tourist and recreational complex, regional economy, Penza region, socio-economic system, extrapolation prediction